FNUS75 KTWC 102347
FWSTWC

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHIPMAN...PHILBIN TYPE II TEAM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
447 PM MST WED JUL 10 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1625 MST ON JULY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

IN AN EFFORT TO PROVIDE THE BEST SERVICE WE CAN, IF TIME PERMITS
PLEASE USE THE FEEDBACK OPTION TO SEND BACK THE WEATHER THAT
OCCURRED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD YOU REQUESTED. AN EXAMPLE, THE
HIGH TEMP, MIN RH AND WIND SPEED FOR THE DAY OR THE WEATHER THAT WAS
OCCURRING DURING YOUR PRESCRIBED BURN.

.DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PINAL COUNTY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NW-WARD
TOWARD THE FIRE AREA. THE OUTFLOW IS MOVING N-WARD. ANOTHER OUTFLOW
ACROSS SWRN PINAL COUNTY INTERESTING I-10 AT 1630 WILL ALSO BE MOVING
TOWARD THE FIRE AREA. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO OUTFLOWS SHOULD
PUSH MAIN ACTIVITY E-WARD OVER TIME BRING A MORE DIRECT PATH TOWARD
FIRE AREA. THESE STORMS/OUTFLOWS ARE MOVING AT OR AROUND 15 MPH.
EXPECT THESE BOUNDARIES AND STORMS AROUND 1930. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. LITTLE DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS LINE/OUTFLOW
EXPECTED...WITHOUT A SECOND OUTFLOW OFF OF THE RIM. RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN AROUND .25-2" PER HOUR WITH THESE STORMS SO GIVEN VALLEY
ORIENTATION AND STORM PATH FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS
BEING TO TRAIN. OTHERWISE...GOOD RH RECOVERIES EXPECTED...WITH STORMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....75 TO 78 DEGS.
MAX HUMIDITY........64 TO 67 PCT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................4.
CHANCE OF RAIN......40 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 100 DEGS.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 TO 30 PCT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 4 TO 9 MPH.
LAL.................4.
CHANCE OF RAIN......30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

$$
FORECASTER...MEADOWS
REQUESTED BY...KELLY ALLEN FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130710.SHIPM.01/TWC

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON