FNUS75 KGJT 112303
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MILK CREEK FIRE...FS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MDT THU JUL 11 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1623 MDT ON JULY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
BURN AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY WILL BECOME LIKELY BECOME
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE BEFORE SUNSET AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE ARRIVES. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM ROUGHLY THE SOUTH TO
THE NORTH. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM STORMS...ALONG WITH
WETTING RAINFALL. THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES
ON FRIDAY.

.REST OF TODAY (UNTIL 2000 MDT)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60%) BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
                    (80%) BY 1900. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
                    TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 1900.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-21%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 5-7 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
                    ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH NEAR STORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1900...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 15400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 19 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER 2000 MDT)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0100...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-68%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 7-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 2100
                    THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 2-4 MPH AFTER 0100. ERRATIC
                    WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH NEAR STORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD DECREASING TO FAIR BY 2100 AND THEN POOR
                    BY 2300.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 0100...2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 19 MPH DECREASING TO 10 MPH BY 2400.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 1100...WITH
                    NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5 MPH INCREASING TO 8-12 MPH AFTER 1200.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD AFTER 1100 AND EXCELLENT
                    BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 4 UNTIL 1600...THEN 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 22 MPH AFTER 1200.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130711.MILKC.02/GJT