FNUS73 KGRR 111328
FWSGRR

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR BLUE BUTTERFLY...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
928 AM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 EDT ON JULY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL PUSH TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN FROM ALOFT. NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT COMES
INTO PLAY. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE FROM 320 TO 350 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........75 AT IGNITION...MAX 80.
RH..................50 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL
                    FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
                    INCREASING TO 7500 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 7000-7500 FT AGL
                    DECREASING TO 4500-5000 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 6.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-200 (POOR TO FAIR) INCREASING TO 500-900
                    (GOOD TO EXCELLENT) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
                    EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO 700-1100
                    (EXCELLENT) DECREASING TO 400-600 (GOOD TO
                    EXCELLENT) LATE IN THE DAY.

TIME (EDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........25     26     21     15
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............73     75     78     77
RH..............51     45     37     39
20 FT WIND......N 12   N 13   N 13   N 12
20 FT GUST......15     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....3      4      6      6

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 53.
RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 6 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-1000 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-300 (POOR TO GOOD).

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 81.
RH..................MIN 36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400-5900 FT AGL.

$$
FORECASTER...DUKE
REQUESTED BY...JOHN HUSCHKE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130711.BLUEB.01/GRR