FNUS75 KRIW 121147
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR GROS VENTRE...FWS NER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
547 AM MDT FRI JUL 12 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0025 MDT ON JULY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE GROS VENTRE
RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST.  SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
UNTIL AROUND 0800.  VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS DURING THE MORNING WITH A CLEARING TREND BY NOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SHORTLY
AFTER THIS CLEARING OCCURS BY EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH MOST OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
HIGHER TODAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH AS FAR NORTH
AS THE JACKSON HOLE VALLEY ON SATURDAY THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).  ISOLATED SHOWERS.
                    POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE VICINITY AFTER
                    1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-28 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH SOUTHWEST 4 TO 7 MPH IN THE MORNING.  SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.

LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-3900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8100-9100 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (45100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (126600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-49.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-81 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LAL.................2 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.6 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-6200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AROUND
                    5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (86200 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (1900
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING.
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-79.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-26 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH SOUTHWEST 4 TO 7 MPH IN THE MORNING.  SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9700-10300 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 10 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (35000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (137500 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS BETSINGER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130711.GROSV.01/RIW