FNUS75 KBOU 121013 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CREEK...PIDC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 408 AM MDT FRI JUL 12 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0007 MDT ON JULY 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS SHIFTED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN A MOIST...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1500...THEN CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300 UNTIL 1500...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84. MIN HUMIDITY........26%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHEAST 6-12 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300. CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 3 UNTIL 1500...THEN 4. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 10300-11300 FT AGL AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1500...THEN FAIR. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY UNTIL 0200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59. MAX HUMIDITY........77%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................4 UNTIL 0200...THEN 1. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. MIXING HEIGHT.......9500 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80. MIN HUMIDITY........34%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 9500-10500 FT AGL AFTER 1100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 8-10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/12-04 49 3 1 66 47 W 12 18 3 1 S 21 312 CALM 312 P 07/12-05 49 3 1 65 48 W 9 14 3 1 S 18 311 CALM 311 P 07/12-06 30 5 1 66 47 WSW 7 7 3 1 SSW 16 310 CALM 310 P 07/12-07 30 5 1 69 43 W 6 6 3 1 SSW 16 2611 CALM 10276 P 07/12-08 30 5 1 73 39 NW 5 5 3 1 SSW 15 4911 W 3 20242 P 07/12-09 43 5 1 78 34 NW 5 5 3 1 SSW 14 7212 WNW 5 30208 P 07/12-10 43 5 1 81 30 N 5 5 3 1 SSW 14 8281 WNW 3 24935 P 07/12-11 43 5 1 83 27 NNE 6 6 3 1 SSW 15 9350 W 2 19663 P 07/12-12 58 5 1 84 26 ENE 7 7 3 1 SSW 15 10418 CALM 14390 P 07/12-13 58 21 4 84 26 ENE 8 13 3 3 SSW 15 10759 SW 2 24401 P 07/12-14 58 21 4 83 27 ENE 9 14 3 3 SSW 16 11100 SSW 3 34413 P 07/12-15 85 42 19 82 29 ENE 9 15 3 4 SSW 16 11441 S 5 44424 F 07/12-16 85 42 19 80 33 NE 8 13 3 4 SSW 15 10781 S 5 44850 F 07/12-17 85 42 19 78 36 N 6 6 3 4 S 15 10122 SSE 6 45275 F 07/12-18 86 42 19 76 40 NNW 5 5 3 4 SSE 14 9463 SE 6 45700 F 07/12-19 86 42 19 74 44 NNW 5 5 3 4 S 13 6471 S 5 31045 P 07/12-20 86 42 19 72 49 NW 6 6 3 4 S 12 3480 W 5 16391 P 07/12-21 86 42 19 70 53 NW 6 6 3 4 S 12 489 NW 5 1736 P 07/12-22 86 42 19 68 56 WNW 5 5 3 4 SSW 10 445 NW 3 1293 P 07/12-23 86 42 19 66 60 W 3 3 3 4 WSW 9 401 WNW 2 850 P 07/13-00 86 42 19 65 60 WSW 2 2 3 4 WSW 9 358 CALM 407 P 07/13-01 86 42 19 64 62 WSW 3 3 3 4 WSW 9 338 W 2 588 P 07/13-02 52 10 2 63 63 WSW 5 5 3 1 W 9 318 W 3 768 P 07/13-03 52 10 2 61 67 WSW 6 6 3 1 W 9 298 W 3 948 P 07/13-04 52 10 2 60 71 WSW 5 5 3 1 WSW 8 239 W 5 841 P 07/13-05 52 10 2 59 77 W 3 3 3 1 WSW 8 180 NW 6 734 P 07/13-06 52 6 1 60 75 W 2 2 3 1 SW 7 121 NNW 6 626 P 07/13-07 52 6 1 64 63 W 2 2 3 1 SW 7 2023 NNW 5 2934 P 07/13-08 52 6 1 68 52 WNW 5 5 3 1 WSW 8 3925 NNW 3 5242 P 07/13-09 52 6 1 73 41 WNW 6 6 3 1 WSW 8 5827 NNW 2 7549 P 07/13-10 52 6 1 76 37 NW 6 6 3 1 SW 7 7730 N 2 9932 P 07/13-11 52 6 1 78 35 NNE 6 6 3 1 SW 7 9633 NE 2 12315 P 07/13-12 73 41 18 80 34 NE 6 6 3 4 SW 6 11536 CALM 14698 P 07/13-13 73 41 18 80 35 NE 7 7 3 4 SW 6 11039 ENE 2 16054 P 07/13-14 73 41 18 80 37 ENE 7 7 3 4 SW 5 10542 ENE 2 17409 P 07/13-15 73 41 18 80 39 ENE 8 13 3 4 SW 5 10045 ENE 2 18765 P 07/13-16 73 41 18 78 46 NE 8 14 3 4 SW 3 9548 ENE 2 20120 P 07/13-17 73 41 18 77 51 NE 8 14 3 4 SW 3 9051 ENE 2 21476 P 07/13-18 77 43 20 75 56 NNE 8 13 3 4 SW 2 8554 ENE 3 22831 P 07/13-19 77 43 20 73 54 N 7 7 3 4 SSW 2 7180 E 2 19078 P 07/13-20 77 43 20 72 48 WNW 6 6 3 4 SSW 2 5806 ESE 2 15324 P 07/13-21 77 43 20 70 45 WSW 6 6 3 4 S 2 4432 CALM 11571 P 07/13-22 77 43 20 69 47 WSW 7 7 2 4 S 2 3059 CALM 7818 P 07/13-23 77 43 20 68 51 WSW 7 7 2 4 SSE 2 1685 CALM 4065 P 07/14-00 58 10 2 67 54 WSW 8 13 2 2 SSE 2 311 CALM 311 P 07/14-01 58 10 2 66 56 WSW 8 13 2 2 SE 2 311 CALM 311 P 07/14-02 58 10 2 65 58 WSW 7 7 2 2 SE 3 311 CALM 311 P 07/14-03 58 10 2 64 60 WSW 7 7 3 2 ESE 5 311 CALM 311 P 07/14-04 58 10 2 63 65 WSW 7 7 3 2 E 6 311 CALM 311 P 07/14-05 58 10 2 62 70 W 8 13 3 2 E 6 311 CALM 311 P 07/14-06 58 9 2 63 67 W 8 13 3 1 E 7 310 CALM 310 P 07/14-07 58 9 2 65 60 WNW 8 8 3 1 E 7 1650 CALM 9776 P 07/14-08 58 9 2 70 49 NW 7 7 3 1 E 7 2989 SE 2 19242 P 07/14-09 58 9 2 73 44 NNW 7 7 3 1 ENE 7 4328 ESE 3 28708 P 07/14-10 58 9 2 76 42 N 8 8 2 1 ENE 7 5667 E 6 38174 P 07/14-11 58 9 2 77 42 NNE 8 14 2 1 ENE 7 7006 ENE 7 47639 F 07/14-12 74 46 23 78 42 NE 9 15 2 3 ENE 7 8345 ENE 8 57105 F 07/14-13 74 46 23 78 42 NE 8 14 2 3 ENE 8 7898 ENE 7 51617 F 07/14-14 74 46 23 77 45 ENE 8 8 2 3 NE 8 7450 E 7 46128 F 07/14-15 74 46 23 76 46 ENE 7 7 2 3 NE 9 7002 E 7 40639 F 07/14-16 74 46 23 75 52 ENE 7 7 2 3 NE 9 6555 ESE 6 35151 P 07/14-17 74 46 23 73 57 E 7 7 2 3 NE 9 6107 ESE 6 29662 P 07/14-18 73 47 24 72 61 E 8 13 2 3 NNE 10 5659 SE 5 24173 P 07/14-19 73 47 24 70 61 E 9 15 2 3 NE 10 4818 SE 6 20905 P 07/14-20 73 47 24 69 59 SE 10 17 2 3 NE 12 3976 SE 6 17637 P 07/14-21 73 47 24 68 59 SE 12 18 2 3 ENE 13 3134 SE 7 14368 P 07/14-22 73 47 24 67 65 SSE 12 17 2 3 E 13 2293 SSE 7 11100 P 07/14-23 73 47 24 66 73 SSE 10 16 2 3 E 14 1451 SSE 8 7832 P 07/15-00 52 10 2 65 81 SSE 9 15 2 2 E 14 609 SSE 8 4563 P 07/15-01 52 10 2 64 84 SSE 9 15 2 2 E 14 570 SSE 8 4260 P 07/15-02 52 10 2 63 84 S 9 15 2 2 E 13 530 S 8 3957 P 07/15-03 52 10 2 62 84 S 9 15 2 2 E 13 490 S 8 3654 P 07/15-04 52 10 2 61 87 S 9 14 2 2 ENE 12 450 S 8 3351 P 07/15-05 52 10 2 60 90 SSW 8 14 2 2 ENE 12 410 S 8 3049 P 07/15-06 50 16 3 60 90 SSW 8 13 2 3 ENE 10 371 S 8 2746 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...ENTREKIN REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130712.BEARC.01/BOU