FNUS73 KMQT 121147 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR M2 TO T2...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 747 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON JULY 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE AT THE FIRE SITE. EXPECT GENERAL WINDS TO REACH 25 MPH IN GUSTS WITH THE SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. WITH THE SOUTH WINDS COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...HUMIDITY WILL VARY SHARPLY IN THE FIRE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL END UP AROUND 35 PERCENT AT THE FIRE SITE...BUT IF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS A GREATER INFLUENCE THE HUMIDITY WOULD LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT...IF NOT HIGHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD END UP AROUND 80 DEGREES. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT AS ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONLY AFFECT FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THERE COULD BE BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT THEY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL NOT COME UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....74 AT IGNITION...MAX 81. MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 14 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 24 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 21 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (296) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (725) IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500 FT AGL AT IGNITION AND TO 3800-4900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........9 9 18 34 45 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............74 77 80 80 78 RH..............49 39 35 37 41 GENERAL WIND....S 11 S 11 S 12 S 10 S 10 GENERAL GUST....23 23 24 21 21 VINDX KT-FT/100.296 537 687 712 524 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 14 S 15 S 16 S 18 S 21 MIX HGT (FT)....2500 4100 4900 4500 2900 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 5 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 56. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 98 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4...OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 31 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (14). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........51 46 40 35 36 36 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............75 64 59 58 56 58 RH..............46 69 86 88 97 96 GENERAL WIND....S 8 S 8 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 GENERAL GUST....14 14 10 7 7 8 VINDX KT-FT/100.387 127 22 53 58 28 TRANSPORT WIND..S 22 S 22 SW 23 SW 24 SW 26 SW 25 MIX HGT (FT)....2000 700 100 300 300 100 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 82. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 38 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4...OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 26 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (532). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2100-3000 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........37 34 32 29 28 28 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............63 71 79 82 82 80 RH..............83 65 49 38 40 43 GENERAL WIND....S 7 S 7 S 9 S 10 S 10 S 8 GENERAL GUST....13 13 17 17 17 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.43 265 451 502 532 423 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 20 SW 17 SW 18 SW 20 SW 21 SW 20 MIX HGT (FT)....300 1800 2800 3000 3000 2500 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...JLA REQUESTED BY...GARY LINDSAY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130712.M2TOT.01/MQT