FNUS75 KRIW 121439
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR SENSEBAUGH...BLM WY-HPD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
839 AM MDT FRI JUL 12 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0816 MDT ON JULY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MID LOW TO LEVEL MOISTURE HAS OVERSPREAD THE DISTRICT TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WET
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS OR THUNDER
SHOULD BE IN THE CASPER MOUNTAIN AREA BY NOON OR VERY SOON AFTER.
ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY
BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE WARMER AGAIN SATURDAY
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE GETS
RE-ENFORCED FROM THE EAST...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE WETTING RAIN.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRAUN

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30 TO 50 PERCENT) TO START...
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8300-9300 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 12 TO 14 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (46400-88900 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-67.
MAX HUMIDITY........68-71 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2 UNTIL 0300...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.11 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600-6600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900-1900 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (13800-58000 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....93-96.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-18 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9400-10400 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (28900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (81500
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS AROUND 90. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRAUN
REQUESTED BY...EDDIE HUTTON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130712.SENSE.01/RIW