FNUS75 KBOU 140049 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BARD CREEK...COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 647 PM MDT SAT JUL 13 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1715 MDT ON JULY 13. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE EVENING. THEN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT BUT HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEP AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51. MAX HUMIDITY........93%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................35 PERCENT DECREASING TO 5 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................5 UNTIL 2400...THEN 3. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4100 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1500...THEN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69. MIN HUMIDITY........55%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT. LAL.................2 UNTIL 0900...THEN 3 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4 UNTIL 1500...THEN 5. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 5100-6100 FT AGL AFTER 0900. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1400...THEN FAIR. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BARD CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/13-18 85 57 33 55 93 WSW 5 5 2 5 SW 12 4072 SSE 2 10164 P 07/13-19 85 57 33 55 90 WSW 5 5 2 5 SW 14 3225 S 3 8667 P 07/13-20 85 57 33 56 88 WSW 5 5 3 5 WSW 15 2378 SSW 3 7171 P 07/13-21 85 57 33 56 86 WSW 5 5 3 5 WSW 17 1530 SW 5 5675 P 07/13-22 85 57 33 56 85 WSW 5 5 3 5 W 15 1181 SW 5 4396 P 07/13-23 85 57 33 56 84 WSW 5 5 3 5 W 14 831 SW 5 3117 P 07/14-00 73 17 3 56 83 WSW 5 5 3 3 W 13 481 SW 5 1838 P 07/14-01 73 17 3 56 83 W 5 5 3 3 W 13 452 WSW 5 1704 P 07/14-02 73 17 3 56 83 W 5 5 2 3 W 12 422 WSW 5 1569 P 07/14-03 60 17 3 55 83 W 5 5 2 3 W 10 392 W 5 1435 P 07/14-04 60 17 3 53 88 W 6 6 2 3 W 10 383 W 5 1436 P 07/14-05 60 17 3 52 91 W 7 7 2 3 W 10 373 W 5 1437 P 07/14-06 62 10 2 52 89 W 7 7 2 2 W 10 363 WNW 5 1438 P 07/14-07 62 10 2 55 81 W 6 6 2 2 W 9 1978 WNW 6 10904 P 07/14-08 62 10 2 60 68 NW 6 6 2 2 WNW 8 3593 WNW 6 20370 P 07/14-09 74 24 5 65 58 NNW 5 5 2 3 WNW 7 5208 NW 7 29835 P 07/14-10 74 24 5 67 56 N 5 5 2 3 NW 7 5812 NW 6 29536 P 07/14-11 74 24 5 69 55 NE 6 6 2 3 NW 7 6416 N 6 29238 P 07/14-12 86 39 17 69 57 ENE 6 6 2 4 NW 6 7021 N 5 28939 P 07/14-13 86 39 17 69 59 ENE 6 6 2 4 NW 7 6834 NNE 6 35846 P 07/14-14 86 39 17 68 63 ENE 7 7 2 4 WNW 8 6647 ENE 7 42753 F 07/14-15 96 63 42 67 65 ENE 7 7 2 5 WNW 9 6460 E 9 49659 F 07/14-16 96 63 42 66 66 ENE 7 7 2 5 WNW 8 5503 E 12 50680 F 07/14-17 96 63 42 65 65 ENE 6 6 2 5 WNW 8 4546 ENE 14 51700 F 07/14-18 89 64 44 63 67 ENE 6 6 2 5 WNW 7 3589 ENE 17 52720 F 07/14-19 89 64 44 62 68 E 6 6 2 5 WNW 9 3254 E 15 43239 F 07/14-20 89 64 44 60 73 ESE 7 7 2 5 NW 12 2918 E 13 33758 P 07/14-21 89 64 44 58 77 SE 7 7 2 5 NNW 14 2583 E 10 24278 P 07/14-22 89 64 44 56 82 SE 7 7 2 5 N 14 2249 ESE 9 19213 P 07/14-23 89 64 44 55 84 SSE 6 6 2 5 NE 13 1916 SE 8 14149 P 07/15-00 81 43 20 54 86 SSE 6 6 2 4 ENE 13 1582 SE 7 9085 P 07/15-01 81 43 20 53 89 SSE 6 6 2 4 ENE 13 1494 SE 6 8183 P 07/15-02 81 43 20 53 88 S 5 5 2 4 NE 14 1407 SSE 6 7282 P 07/15-03 81 43 20 52 89 S 5 5 2 4 NE 14 1319 SSE 6 6381 P 07/15-04 81 43 20 51 90 S 5 5 2 4 NE 14 1257 SSE 6 6328 P 07/15-05 81 43 20 50 90 S 3 3 2 4 ENE 14 1195 SSE 6 6274 P 07/15-06 81 43 20 51 86 S 3 3 2 2 ENE 14 1132 SSE 6 6221 P 07/15-07 81 43 20 55 76 S 3 3 2 2 ENE 13 1862 SE 7 11724 P 07/15-08 81 43 20 60 66 SSE 5 5 2 2 ENE 13 2591 SE 7 17226 P 07/15-09 74 43 20 65 58 SE 6 6 2 2 ENE 13 3321 SE 8 22729 P 07/15-10 74 43 20 68 54 SE 6 6 2 2 E 13 3280 SE 8 23780 P 07/15-11 74 43 20 69 54 SE 7 7 2 2 E 12 3238 SE 9 24832 P 07/15-12 61 34 13 69 55 SE 7 7 2 4 E 12 3197 SE 9 25883 P 07/15-13 61 34 13 69 55 ESE 8 8 2 4 E 12 3437 SE 9 26562 P 07/15-14 61 34 13 68 57 ESE 9 14 2 4 E 12 3677 SE 8 27240 P 07/15-15 61 34 13 68 57 ESE 10 16 2 4 E 12 3917 SE 8 27918 P 07/15-16 61 34 13 67 58 ESE 10 15 2 4 E 10 4164 SE 8 27848 P 07/15-17 61 34 13 66 59 SE 9 9 2 4 E 9 4411 SE 7 27777 P 07/15-18 53 10 2 65 60 SSE 8 8 2 2 E 9 4658 SE 7 27706 P 07/15-19 53 10 2 63 64 SSE 8 8 2 2 ENE 10 4291 SE 8 29306 P 07/15-20 37 10 2 61 68 SSE 7 7 2 2 ENE 10 3924 SSE 9 30906 P 07/15-21 37 10 2 58 74 S 7 7 2 2 ENE 12 3557 S 10 32506 P 07/15-22 29 10 2 57 75 S 7 7 2 2 ENE 13 2841 S 9 24757 P 07/15-23 29 10 2 55 79 S 7 7 2 2 ENE 14 2126 S 8 17008 P 07/16-00 29 5 1 55 77 S 7 7 2 1 ENE 14 1411 SSW 8 9259 P 07/16-01 29 5 1 54 78 S 7 7 2 1 ENE 15 1053 SSW 7 6676 P 07/16-02 29 5 1 53 78 SSW 7 7 2 1 ENE 15 695 WSW 6 4093 P 07/16-03 29 5 1 51 82 SSW 7 7 2 1 ENE 16 337 WSW 5 1510 P 07/16-04 29 5 1 49 86 SW 7 7 2 1 ENE 16 339 WSW 5 1451 P 07/16-05 29 5 1 48 87 SW 7 7 2 1 ENE 15 341 W 5 1391 P 07/16-06 27 5 1 49 83 SW 7 7 2 1 ENE 15 343 W 5 1332 P 07/16-07 27 5 1 54 68 SW 7 7 2 1 ENE 15 1536 WNW 5 6241 P 07/16-08 27 5 1 60 55 SSW 7 7 2 1 E 15 2729 NNW 5 11149 P 07/16-09 27 5 1 67 43 S 7 7 2 1 E 15 3922 N 5 16058 P 07/16-10 40 8 2 71 39 SSE 6 6 2 1 E 14 4979 NNE 6 25258 P 07/16-11 40 8 2 73 37 SE 6 6 2 1 E 14 6036 NE 6 34458 P 07/16-12 65 23 5 75 36 SE 6 6 2 3 E 14 7093 ENE 7 43659 F 07/16-13 65 23 5 75 36 SE 6 6 2 3 E 13 7241 E 7 43703 F 07/16-14 65 23 5 75 37 SE 6 6 2 3 E 13 7389 E 7 43747 F 07/16-15 65 23 5 74 38 ESE 6 6 2 3 E 12 7538 E 7 43791 F 07/16-16 65 23 5 74 38 ESE 6 6 2 3 E 10 7565 E 7 41775 F 07/16-17 65 23 5 72 41 ESE 6 6 3 3 ESE 9 7593 ESE 6 39759 P 07/16-18 53 23 5 70 44 ESE 6 6 3 3 ESE 7 7620 ESE 6 37743 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BARJENBRUCH REQUESTED BY...SERGEANT SAFE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130713.BARDC.01/BOU