FNUS75 KGJT 140106
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MILK CREEK...GRAND JUNCTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
706 PM MDT SAT JUL 13 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1756 MDT ON JULY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WEST OF MEEKER AT 1900 MDT WAS
TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS TIMED TO PASS OVER JUST TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE FIRE SITE AROUND 2000 MDT. A LIGHT SHOWER MAY PRECEDE IT.
OTHERWISE...SMALL DISTURBANCES MOVING UP FROM NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BELOW 17000 FT MSL SHOULD TURN NORTHERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A THE MONSOONAL FLOW GETS DISRUPTED BY A LOW MOVING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO STILL TRIGGER SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
SUNDAY.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60%)...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (80%) BEFORE 2400. SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
                    PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE FIRE AROUND 2000 MDT OR
                    BEFORE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
                    RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........71-81%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5-8 MPH...BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 2-4 MPH AFTER
                    2400. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 35 MPH EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL BY 2400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH DECREASING TO 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE. SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 4-6 MPH
                    AFTER 1200. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1300...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9500 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON...HIGHER IN STORMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER 1200.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130713.MILKC.01/GJT