FNUS75 KBOU 141425 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 825 AM MDT SUN JUL 14 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0740 MDT ON JULY 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 0900...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0900 UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1500...THEN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80. MIN HUMIDITY........40-50%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH. BECOMING NORTHEAST 6-14 MPH AFTER 1200. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0900...THEN 3 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4 UNTIL 1500...THEN 5. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. MIXING HEIGHT.......7000-8000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1300. GOOD AFTER 1500. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60. MAX HUMIDITY........90-100%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................45 PERCENT DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................5. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-6000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 2300-3300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN LIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75. MIN HUMIDITY........40-50%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 8-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................25 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................2. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. MIXING HEIGHT.......5100-6100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 8-13 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/14-08 25 8 2 68 56 NNW 7 7 2 1 NW 7 3272 N 6 18481 P 07/14-09 65 16 3 72 49 N 7 7 2 3 NW 7 4664 N 7 26952 P 07/14-10 65 16 3 74 47 N 7 7 2 3 NW 7 5368 N 7 30649 P 07/14-11 65 16 3 76 44 NNE 8 8 2 3 NNW 7 6072 N 7 34346 P 07/14-12 91 35 13 76 45 NE 8 13 2 4 NNW 7 6776 NNE 7 38043 P 07/14-13 91 35 13 76 45 NNE 9 14 2 4 NNW 7 7406 NNE 7 48803 F 07/14-14 91 35 13 75 48 NNE 10 16 2 4 NNW 7 8037 NNE 8 59563 F 07/14-15 91 62 41 74 50 NNE 10 16 2 5 NNW 7 8667 NE 9 70324 G 07/14-16 91 62 41 72 53 NNE 10 17 2 5 NNW 6 7808 NE 13 81878 G 07/14-17 91 62 41 70 57 NNE 10 16 2 5 N 5 6949 ENE 16 93432 G 07/14-18 98 65 45 68 61 NNE 9 15 2 5 N 3 6089 ENE 20104987 V 07/14-19 98 65 45 66 65 N 7 7 2 5 N 7 4910 ENE 14 71421 G 07/14-20 98 65 45 64 70 NNW 5 5 2 5 NNE 10 3731 ENE 8 37855 P 07/14-21 98 65 45 63 72 NW 2 2 2 5 NE 15 2551 ENE 2 4290 P 07/14-22 98 65 45 62 75 NW 2 2 2 5 NE 12 2623 NNE 2 5179 P 07/14-23 98 65 45 61 78 W 3 3 2 5 NE 9 2694 NNW 2 6069 P 07/15-00 92 55 30 60 81 W 5 5 2 5 NNE 7 2765 WNW 3 6959 P 07/15-01 92 55 30 59 84 WSW 5 5 2 5 NE 8 2646 NNW 3 6848 P 07/15-02 92 55 30 58 87 SW 5 5 2 5 NE 8 2526 ENE 3 6738 P 07/15-03 92 55 30 57 90 SSW 5 5 2 5 NE 9 2407 E 3 6628 P 07/15-04 92 55 30 56 92 SSW 3 3 2 5 NE 9 2254 E 2 5329 P 07/15-05 92 55 30 56 90 S 2 2 2 5 NE 10 2102 ESE 2 4029 P 07/15-06 79 46 23 58 83 CALM 1 2 2 NE 10 1949 CALM 2729 P 07/15-07 79 46 23 59 81 CALM 1 2 2 NE 12 2269 ESE 2 4938 P 07/15-08 79 46 23 62 74 SSE 2 2 2 2 ENE 12 2588 ESE 2 7147 P 07/15-09 79 46 23 65 68 SSE 3 3 2 2 ENE 12 2907 SE 3 9355 P 07/15-10 79 46 23 67 63 SSE 5 5 2 2 ENE 13 3337 SE 6 16269 P 07/15-11 79 46 23 69 59 SSE 7 7 2 2 ENE 14 3768 SSE 7 23184 P 07/15-12 57 10 2 71 55 SSE 8 13 2 2 ENE 15 4198 SSE 8 30098 P 07/15-13 57 10 2 71 55 SSE 9 14 2 2 ENE 16 4728 SSE 8 33757 P 07/15-14 57 10 2 71 54 SSE 9 15 2 2 ENE 17 5258 SSE 8 37416 P 07/15-15 57 10 2 71 54 SSE 9 15 2 2 ENE 17 5788 SSE 8 41075 F 07/15-16 57 10 2 70 55 SSE 9 15 2 2 ENE 15 6076 SSE 8 45319 F 07/15-17 57 10 2 70 54 SSE 10 16 2 2 ENE 13 6365 SSE 9 49562 F 07/15-18 40 6 1 69 55 SSE 10 16 2 1 ENE 12 6654 SSE 9 53805 F 07/15-19 40 6 1 67 57 SSE 12 18 2 1 ENE 10 5024 SSE 13 45416 F 07/15-20 40 6 1 65 59 S 13 21 2 1 ENE 10 3395 S 16 37027 P 07/15-21 40 6 1 63 61 S 14 22 2 1 NE 10 1765 S 18 28638 P 07/15-22 40 6 1 61 64 S 14 22 2 1 ENE 12 1305 S 18 21216 P 07/15-23 40 6 1 60 64 S 14 22 3 1 ENE 12 845 S 18 13793 P 07/16-00 32 5 1 59 64 S 14 22 3 1 ENE 12 385 SSW 20 6370 P 07/16-01 32 5 1 58 65 SSW 14 23 3 1 ENE 10 359 S 13 4349 P 07/16-02 32 5 1 57 66 SSW 15 24 3 1 ENE 9 333 S 7 2328 P 07/16-03 32 5 1 56 68 SSW 15 24 3 1 ENE 7 306 CALM 306 P 07/16-04 32 5 1 55 70 SSW 14 23 3 1 ENE 7 306 CALM 306 P 07/16-05 32 5 1 54 72 SSW 13 21 3 1 E 6 305 CALM 305 P 07/16-06 30 5 1 55 69 SW 12 18 3 1 E 7 304 CALM 304 P 07/16-07 30 5 1 58 62 SSW 10 16 3 1 E 8 1327 CALM 5118 P 07/16-08 30 5 1 63 52 SSW 8 13 2 1 E 9 2350 S 3 9932 P 07/16-09 30 5 1 68 44 S 7 7 2 1 ESE 10 3373 S 5 14745 P 07/16-10 30 5 1 72 39 S 7 7 2 1 ESE 12 4617 S 5 16927 P 07/16-11 30 5 1 74 37 SSE 7 7 2 1 SE 13 5861 SSE 3 19108 P 07/16-12 47 8 2 76 35 SSE 7 7 2 1 SE 13 7105 SSE 3 21289 P 07/16-13 47 8 2 77 34 SSE 8 8 2 1 SE 12 7348 SSE 5 28004 P 07/16-14 47 8 2 77 34 SSE 9 14 2 1 SE 10 7590 SSE 6 34719 P 07/16-15 47 8 2 77 34 SSE 10 16 2 1 SE 8 7833 SE 6 41434 F 07/16-16 47 8 2 76 35 SSE 12 17 2 1 ESE 7 7657 SSE 8 49900 F 07/16-17 47 8 2 74 38 SSE 12 20 2 1 E 6 7482 SSE 9 58366 F 07/16-18 42 8 2 73 40 SSE 13 21 2 1 ENE 5 7307 SSE 10 66832 G 07/16-19 42 8 2 70 45 SSE 13 20 2 1 ENE 6 6232 S 14 67347 G 07/16-20 42 8 2 68 49 SSE 12 18 2 1 ENE 7 5157 S 16 67861 G 07/16-21 42 8 2 65 55 S 12 17 2 1 ENE 8 4082 S 20 68375 G 07/16-22 42 8 2 63 60 S 10 16 2 1 ENE 8 3217 S 20 54086 F 07/16-23 42 8 2 61 64 S 9 14 2 1 ENE 8 2351 S 20 39797 P 07/17-00 24 3 1 60 67 S 8 13 2 1 ENE 8 1485 S 20 25508 P 07/17-01 24 3 1 59 68 SSW 8 8 2 1 ENE 8 1073 SSW 17 17883 P 07/17-02 24 3 1 59 67 SSW 7 7 2 1 NE 8 661 SW 15 10258 P 07/17-03 24 3 1 58 68 SSW 7 7 2 1 NE 9 250 SW 13 2633 P 07/17-04 24 3 1 56 71 SW 6 6 2 1 NE 9 181 SW 10 1823 P 07/17-05 24 3 1 55 72 SW 6 6 2 1 NE 10 112 WSW 8 1012 P 07/17-06 31 8 2 56 69 SW 6 6 2 1 NE 10 44 WSW 6 202 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...RJK REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130714.BEARC.01/BOU