FNUS75 KGJT 160150
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MILK CREEK...GRAND JUNCTION DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
750 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1855 MDT ON JULY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FIRE THIS
EVENING BUT A FEW DEVELOPING SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FIRE MAY HAVE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF DRIFTING NEAR THE AREA THROUGH 0100. OTHERWISE
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH LATE
MORNING  ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
PLATEAUS AND FLAT TOPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION MAY NOT
DIRECTLY AFFECT THE FIRE AT TIMES BUT OUTFLOW WINDS WILL NEED TO
MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) WITH AN ISOLATED
                    SHOWER POSSIBLE THROUGH 0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 55 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........69-74%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO DOWNVALLEY/EAST
                    AT 3 TO 5 MPH BY 2200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR AFTER 2100.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNVALLEY/EAST AT 3 TO 5 MPH BY 2200

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THROUGH 1200 THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) WITH SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79 TO 82 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY/EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING TO GOOD
                    BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1 THROUGH 1200 THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING TO
                    9100 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNVALLEY AT 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 10
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130715.MILKC.02/GJT