FNUS73 KMQT 151148 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR M2 TO T2...USFWS SENEY NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 748 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 EDT ON JULY 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TODAY WITH LAKE BREEZES FORMING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 20 MPH. EXPECT VERY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THERE MAY EVEN BE ONE OR TWO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AFFECTING MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY. EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....85 AT IGNITION...MAX 86. MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 50 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (291) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (370). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2800-4000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3800-5400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 1400-2600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........22 29 35 38 35 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............82 86 86 84 81 RH..............62 52 51 54 60 GENERAL WIND....SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 S 7 S 7 GENERAL GUST....9 9 12 13 13 VINDX KT-FT/100.282 267 312 340 143 TRANSPORT WIND..W 8 SW 6 SW 7 SW 10 SW 12 MIX HGT (FT)....4000 5300 5200 3800 1400 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 63. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 5 MPH OR LESS BY LATE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT INCREASING TO 4 TO 9 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (0). MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........33 33 32 32 39 45 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............79 72 66 64 63 64 RH..............66 80 92 96 100 100 GENERAL WIND....S 6 S 6 SE 4 S 4 S 4 S 5 GENERAL GUST....9 9 5 5 5 6 VINDX KT-FT/100.48 16 28 35 40 9 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 12 SW 13 SW 14 SW 16 SW 18 SW 17 MIX HGT (FT)....500 100 200 300 300 100 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 85. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 63 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 23 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (531) INCREASING TO GOOD (567) LATE. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2100-3800 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 1200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........52 54 55 57 56 56 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............68 78 83 82 85 82 RH..............90 71 63 67 63 68 GENERAL WIND....SW 6 SW 6 SW 8 S 10 S 10 S 10 GENERAL GUST....10 10 16 18 18 18 VINDX KT-FT/100.33 328 461 463 567 429 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 15 SW 14 SW 14 SW 17 SW 21 SW 23 MIX HGT (FT)....300 2700 3800 3100 3200 2100 LAL.............1 1 1 2 2 2 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...MICHELS REQUESTED BY...GARY LINDSAY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130715.M2TOT.01/MQT