FNUS75 KRIW 152238
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR SENSEBAUGH...BLM WY-HPD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
438 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1612 MDT ON JULY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS EAST
NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH. PLENTY OF LIGHTNING IS BEING DETECTED
WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THROUGH 2100 AS DEVELOPMENT WOULD OCCUR OVER OR NEAR
THE FIRE UNTIL THEN. THE BIGGEST THREATS WOULD BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH DUE TO THE OUTFLOW FROM THE
STORMS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IF A STORM DOES GET
STRONG. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS AFTER 2100 WOULD END
BY MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...AR

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
                    MIDNIGHT. FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AREA THROUGH 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-57.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-82 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 MPH UNTIL SUNSET.
                    THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND AT 6 TO 10 MPH
                    AFTER SUNSET.
                    ERRATIC WIND DIRECTION AND WIND GUSTS TO 30
                    MPH NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 13 MPH UNTIL
                    SUNSET...THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 7 TO 12 MPH.
                    WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1000-1500 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD...BECOMING POOR BY MIDNIGHT.


.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING.
                    PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77.

MIN HUMIDITY........30-34 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 6 MPH UNTIL 1000.
                    THEN EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 13 MPH AFTER 1000.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1000.
                    EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 13 MPH AFTER 1000.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 5000-6000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING.
                    EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO FAIR BY 1000...THEN GOOD BY 1300.


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS 77 TO 80.
EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ROSS
REQUESTED BY...LANCE BROYELS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130715.SENSE.01/RIW