FNUS72 KMLB 171021
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUCL LAKE BL-13...SJRWMD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
621 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON JULY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...GOOD MORNING. ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
PUSHING ONSHORE OVERNIGHT IN PERSISTENT EAST FLOW BUT HAVE SO FAR
MISSED THE PROPOSED BURN SITE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ONSHORE TODAY MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. A BRIEF DOWNPOUR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.10 INCH.
EASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRODUCE GOOD DISPERSION.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000-4500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 20 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....61.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM RW  RW
TEMP............82  84  84  85  86  85  85  85  83  81  79  79
RH..............69  65  65  63  61  61  61  59  63  69  74  74
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..12  14  15  16  16  16  16  16  15  14  12  10
20 FT WIND GUST.15  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  15

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO
                    AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-1100 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 16 TO 21 MPH DECREASING TO 9 TO 10 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....6.
LVORI...............5.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900-4000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....37.

$$
FORECASTER...KELLY
REQUESTED BY...PETE HENN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130717.BUCLL.01/MLB