FNUS72 KMFL 231127
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR PEROCCHI RX...BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
727 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0830 EDT ON JULY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING RESULTING IN NEAR CALM WIND AT THE FIRE SITE. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST
AND PUSH INLAND LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND AT
THE BURN SITE WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH
THE SEA BREEZE LIKELY REACHING THE LOCATION AROUND 1 TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DISPERSION WILL BE IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE
THIS MORNING AND COULD BECOME GENERALLY GOOD ONCE THE SEA BREEZE
REACHES THE PRESCRIBED BURN. THERE ALSO WILL BE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE
IN THE VICINITY SHORTLY AFTER NOON TO AROUND 2 PM.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 51 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 6 TO 7 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-5000 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....15 INCREASING TO 42.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........25     25     25     50     50     50
WEATHER COV.....       ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........       ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
TEMP............80     89     93     93     93     88
RH..............97     70     56     52     54     65
20 FT WIND......SE 1   S 3    S 3    W 5    W 5    W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.       5      5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....1400   3800   3800   5000   5000   4200
MIXNG WIND......SE 1   S 6    S 6    W 9    W 10   W 10
DISPERSION IDX..15     30     30     45     45     38
LVORI...........5      5      2      1      2      2
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     20     20     30     30     30
LAL.............1      2      2      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 99 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 0
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....23 DECREASING TO 4 IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
LVORI...............7.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 52 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 6 TO 9 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-5000 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....14 INCREASING TO 43 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 58 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO 48 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...BRABANDER
REQUESTED BY...J TURNBO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130723.PEROC.01/MFL