FNUS75 KRIW 251120
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDLUCK FIRE...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
520 AM MDT THU JUL 25 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2136 MDT ON JULY 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTH FORK
SHOSHONE RIVER DRAINAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD
REACH THE FIRE AREA BY 8 AM...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE HOURS WITH BREEZY WINDS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY SHALLOWNESS OF THE
FRONT...AND THE SHARP BENDS OF THE SOUTH FORK OF SHOSHONE CANYON
SOUTHWEST OF VALLEY WILL HELP WEAKEN THE WINDS.

THIS COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALREADY
IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY THAN WHAT
OCCURRED YESTERDAY. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY...BUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75+ PERCENT). WIDELY SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74.
MIN HUMIDITY........22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 5-10 MPH WITH A FEW
                    GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
                    WINDS BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH BETWEEN
                    11 AM AND 1 PM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 10 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 2 UNTIL 2 PM...THEN 3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800-6800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9800 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING
                    VARIABLE 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75+ PERCENT) WITH WIDELY
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50 PERCENT)
                    BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. A VERY ISOLATED
                    SHOWER POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH BY
                    MIDNIGHT...THEN WEST 5-10 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 9 PM...THEN 2 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH BY
                    MIDNIGHT...THEN WEST 5-10 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79.
MIN HUMIDITY........17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH. NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH
                    OCCASIONALLY MIXING DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY
                    AROUND NOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10100-11100 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD BECOMING EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...TIM HAAS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130724.HARDL.01/RIW