FNUS72 KMFL 251318
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR C12 C13 RX...FLORIDA PANTHER NWR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
918 AM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON JULY 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. OVER THE BURN AREA, ANY CELLS
THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED AND SPOTTY IN NATURE.
THEY SHOULD BECOME MORE DEVELOPED AND STRONG AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER, THE ARE IS LACKING A STRONG TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION, SO TIMING IS
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AND CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW TO SAY THAT THE BURN SITE
WILL BE AFFECTED TODAY. THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, WHICH
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE BURN AREA, IMPACTING OPERATIONS. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO FOG IS EXPECTED.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 54 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 7 TO 9 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 14 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....10 INCREASING TO 50 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM
SKY (%).........29     39     47     47     47     37
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
TSTM COV........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
TEMP............83     90     91     90     87     83
RH..............67     56     54     56     61     70
20 FT WIND......SW 2   W 5    W 6    W 6    W 7    W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5      10     15     15     15     10
MIX HGT (FT)....3600   4500   5000   5000   4500   700
MIXNG WIND......SW 2   W 9    W 13   W 13   W 14   W 9
DISPERSION IDX..10     48     52     52     52     5
LVORI...........4      1      1      1      1      3
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     20     20     20     10
LAL.............1      2      2      2      2      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 93 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....3.
LVORI...............5.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 44 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1700...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900-5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 0 TO 6
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 9
                    TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....0 INCREASING TO 48.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...IPPOLITI
REQUESTED BY...PAUL RYAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130725.C12C1.01/MFL