FNUS75 KPIH 251646
FWSPIH

SPOT FORECAST FOR MORGAN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1046 AM MDT THU JUL 25 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0920 MDT ON JULY 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE FIRE AREA AROUND NOON SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED POSITIONED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE WILL HELP TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER AND EAST OF THE FIRE
TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO COLLAPSE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST THROUGH WESTERN CANADA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHEARS
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED
TO REACH THE FIRE AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY WITH A SHIFT IN THE
WINDS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. THE FIRE LOCATION SHOULD BE VERY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WEST WINDS WITH THE ORIENTATION OF SULPHER CK
EMPTYING INTO THE MIDDLE FORK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNVALLEY FLOW 3 TO 8 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING
                    BECOMING WEST 6 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS
                    CAN PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000-11000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST-NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5.
LAL.................1...THEN 2 IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55 ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...40-45 IN THE LOWER
                    PORTION OF THE MIDDLE FORK BELOW THE THERMAL BELT.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...70-80 PERCENT
                    NEAR THE MIDDLE FORK BELOW THE THERMAL BELT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3 TO 7 MPH OVERNIGHT. WINDS
                    AT THE FIRE LEVEL OR ABOVE THERMAL BELT MAY STAY
                    ACTIVE FROM THE WEST 5-15 MPH OVERNIGHT. NEARBY
                    THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL IN THE VALLEYS.
MIXING WINDS........ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT WEST TO 15 MPH...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW.
HAINES INDEX........5.
LAL.................2...THEN 1 AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2 TO 7 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS
                    CAN PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10500-12000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5.
LAL.................2.

$$
FORECASTER...HUSTON
REQUESTED BY...JAN WILLIAMS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130725.MORGA.01/PIH