FNUS75 KRIW 261015
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDLUCK FIRE...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
415 AM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2151 MDT ON JULY 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FIRE SITE
TODAY...WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
TODAY...BUT THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGES BACK
NORTHWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) WITH
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78.
MIN HUMIDITY........14 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UP CANYON 4-8 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS
                    AROUND 10 MPH OCCASIONALLY MIXING DOWN IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.  GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH...INCREASING TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH BY AROUND NOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.NEAR ZERO.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10100 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50.
MAX HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWN CANYON 3-7 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 9 PM...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.NEAR ZERO.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD DECREASING TO FAIR.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75+ PERCENT) WITH SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72.
MIN HUMIDITY........22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH...BECOMING DOMINATED BY
                    VERY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
                    BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 MPH
                    BY NOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 9 AM...THEN 2 THROUGH NOON...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH...DECREASING TO 4 AFTER
                    3 PM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 50. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...TIM HAAS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130725.HARDL.01/RIW