FNUS72 KJAX 260731
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHANTY POND...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
331 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON JULY 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WHICH IN ADDITION
TO DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

A MOIST...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED EACH MORNING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000-6100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 0 TO 9
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....3 INCREASING TO 55.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........31     37     43     46
WEATHER COV.....       S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............84     90     93     91
RH..............70     56     49     50
20 FT WIND......N 2    N 5    N 6    NE 8
20 FT WIND GUST.5             10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....2100   4100   6100   6100
TRANSPORT WIND..N 6    N 9    NE 8   NE 9
DISPERSION INDX.16     46     56     59
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     20     30     40

.TONIGHT...

MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-1700 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 0 TO
                    2 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....50 DECREASING TO 5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
MIX HGT (FT)....4000   2300   1400   900    500    200
TRANSPORT WIND..E 10   E 12   E 8    E 6    SE 5   E 1

$$
FORECASTER...STRUBLE
REQUESTED BY...JOHN RAMSAY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130726.SHANT.01/JAX