FNUS75 KRIW 011008 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDLUCK...USFS SHF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 408 AM MDT THU AUG 1 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2023 MDT ON JULY 31. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER TODAY AND TONIGHT IS A DISTURBANCE PUSHING ONTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT. A CLEAR SLOT WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND A SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER...RH/S SLIGHTLY LOWER AND WINDS A BIT MORE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MID- AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING DURING THE EVENING...PEAK ACTIVITY EXPECTED AROUND SUNSET. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. A MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...MEUNIER .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON (20-30 PERCENT). BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2 PM. MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77 AT 8500 FEET. 64-67 AT 10000 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........19-22 PERCENT AT ALL LEVELS. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH IN THE MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 15 MPH LATE MORNING. SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 2 PM...THEN 3. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7700-8700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH AFTER 2 PM. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-46. MAX HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY EVENING...BECOMING WEST 4 TO 8 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7500-8500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 4100-5100 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD IN THE EVENING...FAIR AFTER 3 AM. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-71 AT 8500 FEET...58-61 AT 10000 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........17-20 PERCENT AT ALL LEVELS. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 15 MPH IN THE MORNING. SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000-8000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO NEAR 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY EVENING...THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWN VALLEY 4 TO 7 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...MEUNIER REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130731.HARDL.01/RIW