FNUS75 KRIW 021050
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDLUCK...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
450 AM MDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2037 MDT ON AUGUST 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH IN THIS
MORNING BEHIND A SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT STORMS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A MOUNTAIN/VALLEY BREEZE BOUNDARY...EAST OF THE FIRE.
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE. A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE...BUT
NOTHING IS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DIURNAL WIND
PATTERN EXPECTED.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-72 AT 8500 FEET...59-62 AT 10000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-19 PERCENT AT 8500 FEET...21-24 PERCENT AT 10000 FEET.

20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH...GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 MPH.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7200-8200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH IN THE MORNING...WEST 30 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-44.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-67 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH UNTIL SUNSET...
                    THEN BECOMING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.

HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-6000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-1600 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 25 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
                    MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD DECREASING TO POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-76 AT 8500 FEET...63-66 AT 10000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-20 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.

LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8700-9700 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS 65-75. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS 65-75.
WINDS GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS 65-75.
WINDS GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130801.HARDL.01/RIW