FNUS75 KRIW 031007 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDLUCK...USFS SHF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 407 AM MDT SAT AUG 3 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2058 MDT ON AUGUST 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE PUSHING EAST ACROSS MONTANA DURING MAXIMUM HEATING. THIS WILL BRING A DRY AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FIRE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EAST. MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THESE MAY PUSH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES UP THE SOUTH FORK SHOSHONE DRAINAGE. ON SUNDAY...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FURTHER WEST...WITH TEMPERATURES AND RH/S SHOWING LITTLE TREND...WINDS TRENDING A BIT LIGHTER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL FIRE OFF TO THE EAST...BUT NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...MEUNIER .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-76 AT 8500 FEET...63-66 AT 10000 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........16-19 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH...GUSTS TO 15 MPH BY LATE MORNING WEST SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SHIFTS POSSIBLE FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY UP THE SOUTH FORK DRAINAGE ON NORTH END OF THE FIRE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000-9000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-46. MAX HUMIDITY........57-60 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. WIND SHIFTS POSSIBLE FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY UP THE SOUTH FORK DRAINAGE ON NORTH END OF THE FIRE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6200-7200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900-1900 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE EVENING...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD DECREASING TO POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77 AT 8500 FEET. 64-67 AT 10000 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........17-20 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH...GUSTS TO 15 MPH LATE MORNING. WEST SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500-9500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS NEAR 70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS NEAR 70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...MEUNIER REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130802.HARDL.01/RIW