FNUS75 KGJT 042328
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR RULE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
528 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1707 MDT ON AUGUST 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE
BURN AREA THROUGH MONDAY...AND MONDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WEATHER-WISE. AT 2330 MDT TODAY...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL ARCHULETA COUNTY TO FARMINGTON NEW MEXICO.
THESE STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST..BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS
SOUTH OF FARMINGTON ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE UP ACROSS LA PLATA
COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.


.REST OF TODAY (UNTIL 2000 MDT)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5-7 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER 2000 MDT)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) UNTIL 2400...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2300...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 5 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR BY 2200.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL BY 2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) UNTIL 1300...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5 MPH BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST AFTER 1500. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR BECOMING GOOD AFTER
                    1200.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FT AGL AFTER 1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH AFTER 1200.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...RULE INCIDENT COMMANDER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130804.RULE_.01/GJT