FNUS73 KGRR 041313
FWSGRR

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR BLUE BUTTERFLY...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
913 AM EDT SUN AUG 4 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON AUGUST 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING HIGHER MOISTURE TO RETURN AND
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
SUNNY TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD BE
SWEPT EAST BY THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AT
MIDDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE
BREEZE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. A DRY AND
COOL NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........69 AT IGNITION...MAX 75.
RH..................51 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    NORTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 11 TO 18 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7200 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6700-7200 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....100-300 (POOR TO GOOD) INCREASING TO 700-1100
                    (EXCELLENT)...THEN DECREASING TO 400-600 (GOOD
                    TO EXCELLENT) LATE IN THE DAY.

TIME (EDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
SKY (%).........41     41     31     27
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............68     71     74     68
RH..............52     47     41     51
20 FT WIND......N 9    NW 17  NW 15  N 12
20 FT GUST......12     20     18     15
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49.
RH..................MAX 83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 3 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-5700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1300-1800 FT
                    AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-400 (POOR TO GOOD).

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 73.
RH..................MIN 51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DUKE
REQUESTED BY...JOHN HUSCHKE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130804.BLUEB.01/GRR