FNUS75 KRIW 051040
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PACKER CREEK...BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
440 AM MDT MON AUG 5 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2204 MDT ON AUGUST 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS
WELL AS TUESDAY MORNING...LIFTING BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FIRE BUT GUSTY OUTFLOW
WIND TO 45 MPH COULD OCCUR DUE TO THE CLOSENESS OF THE SHOWERS
OR STORMS. BEST TIME FOR THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE FROM 1400 TO 2000.
DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS DRY OVER THE FIRE AREA.
WIND TODAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
MORE WIND ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY INCREASE FIRE BEHAVIOR.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...AR

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING. BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-16 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY AT 4 TO 7 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    THEN NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 9 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 13 MPH AFTER 1200.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 45 MPH MAY OCCUR
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    WEST AT 13 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 22 MPH
                    AFTER 1200.

LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9500-10500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.

TRANSPORT WINDS.....AFTER INVERSION BREAKS...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
                    UNTIL 1300.
                    WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH AFTER 1300.

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...INCREASING TO GOOD BY 1300...
                    INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY 1500.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
                    UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 MPH UNTIL SUNSET.
                    THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 4 TO 8 MPH
                    AFTER SUNSET.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 45 MPH MAY OCCUR
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 17 MPH UNTIL SUNSET.
                    THEN WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET.

LAL.................2 UNTIL 2000...THEN LAL 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 500-1500 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 MPH UNTIL SUNSET.
                    THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT...DECREASING TO FAIR BY MIDNIGHT
                    AND THEN POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-20 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY AT 4 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 18 MPH AFTER 1200.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 14 TO 19 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 25 MPH AFTER 1200.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8500-9500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.

TRANSPORT WINDS.....AFTER INVERSION BREAKS...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
                    UNTIL 1300.
                    WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH AFTER 1300.

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...BECOMING GOOD BY 1300...THEN INCREASING
                    TO EXCELLENT BY 1500.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 42-46. DOWNVALLEY
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HIGHS 71-75.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION NEAR STORMS.

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS 70 TO 75.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS 70-75.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH...EXCEPT NEAR STORMS.

$$

FORECASTER...ROSS
REQUESTED BY...ROD DYKEHOUSE
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130804.PACKE.12/RIW