FNUS75 KGJT 051600
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR RULE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1000 AM MDT MON AUG 5 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0850 MDT ON AUGUST 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY. THE FAVORED TIME FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ON THE MOIST AIR
MASS...BUT ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LIGHT SO 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL DOMINATE AT TIMES WITH
VARIABLE OR EVEN ERRATIC STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.


***OBSERVATIONS TAKEN AT THE FIRE SITE ARE NECESSARY FOR AN IMPROVED
FORECAST***

.TODAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE (0-4 MPH) UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 3-7 MPH. AT TIMES WINDS MAY
                    BECOME DOMINATED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS FROM
                    ERRATIC OR VARIABLE DIRECTION AT 10-15 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING FAIR IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER SMOKE
                    DISPERSAL IN SHOWERS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-90%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS 10-15 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL DOMINATE 20-FOOT WINDS
                    UNTIL AROUND 2300...THEN NORTH 3-6 MPH.
                    VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
                    NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
                    NIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. BETTER MIXING NEAR SHOWERS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4...2 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL BY MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOMINATED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS UNTIL
                    2300...THEN NORTH 6 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING
                    AND AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 0-5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (7400-51900 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...RULE INCIDENT COMMANDER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130805.RULE_.01/GJT