FNUS75 KRIW 061211
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDLUCK...SHOSHONE NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
611 AM MDT TUE AUG 6 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2207 MDT ON AUGUST 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT DID MOVE THROUGH LAST EVENING BUT THE PUSH OF NORTH
WIND WAS TEMPORARY AS THE DOWNVALLEY BREEZE RETURNED TO THE
OBSERVATION SITES. THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS
A SECOND SURGE OF NORTH WIND WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH UP THE VALLEY
AND IMPACT SHF-2 SITE. IT IS UNLIKELY THIS PUSH WILL MAKE IT
TO SHF-1 SITE...SO WILL KEEP WIND IN THE FORECAST AND THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY EVEN THROUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRE SITE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION. ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM
EAST OF THE FIRE IN THE WASHAKIE NEEDLES AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...AR

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-75 AROUND 8500 FEET...61 TO 65 AT 10000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-17 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 1100.
                    THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 7 TO 12 MPH AFTER 1100
                    WITH GUSTS TO 16 MPH.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1100.
                    THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 12 TO 17 MPH AFTER
                    1100 WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8000-9000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.

TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH THIS MORNING.
                    WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 7 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    15 MPH UNTIL SUNSET.
                    THEN BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 4 TO 7 MPH
                    AFTER SUNSET.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1000-2000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL SUNSET.
                    BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
                    BY MIDNIGHT.

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD...DECREASING TO FAIR AFTER SUNSET...
                    BECOMING POOR AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING. BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77 AROUND 8500 FEET...63 TO 66 AT 10000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-13 PERCENT.


20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 MPH AFTER 1200
                    WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 12 TO 16 MPH AFTER
                    1200 WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9000-10000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.

TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER 1200.

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 42-46 IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS 45-49.  HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
WINDS VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS 45-50. HIGHS 70-75.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH...GUSTY NEAR STORMS TO 35 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 45-50. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH...GUSTY NEAR STORMS TO 35 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ROSS
REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130805.HARDL.02/RIW