FNUS75 KRIW 081055
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDLUCK...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
455 AM MDT THU AUG 8 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2040 MDT ON AUGUST 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A PLUME OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...SEEN ON
SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER COLORADO...UTAH AND SOUTHERN
IDAHO...WILL ROTATE ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM WITHIN
THIS PLUME FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK TODAY...SO WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DOMINATED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...ERRATIC AND GUSTY IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HIGHER TODAY AND FRIDAY.

THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST FRIDAY
AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO EASTERN IDAHO. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING AGAIN FRIDAY...BEFORE THIS
DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING...
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) BY
                    LATE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCATTERED
                    AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-24 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH OR UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH
                    LATE MORNING.  BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH BY 1400...THEN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
                    ERRATIC AND GUSTY...THE WIND FIELD DOMINATED BY THUNDERSTORM
                    OUTFLOWS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.  GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH
                    POSSIBLE.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING WEST
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2 UNTIL 1500...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9300 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-48.
MAX HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WIND FIELD DOMINATED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS UNTIL
                    SUNSET...THEN NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH...THEN BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-6200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900-1900 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-33 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH OR UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH
                    LATE MORNING.  BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOMING
                    INCREASINGLY ERRATIC AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
                    WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.25 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8100-9100 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...TIM HAAS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130807.HARDL.01/RIW