FNUS75 KRIW 081001 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR PACKER CREEK...USFS BTF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 401 AM MDT THU AUG 8 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2210 MDT ON AUGUST 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A PLUME OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER COLORADO...UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO...WILL ROTATE ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM WITHIN THIS PLUME FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK TODAY WITH NO CLEAR PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION...SO WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...ERRATIC AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY HIGHER TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO EASTERN IDAHO. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING AGAIN FRIDAY...BEFORE THIS DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...MEUNIER .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS THOUGH THE AFTERNOON...MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) BY LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MIN HUMIDITY........19-22 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY OR SOUTH 5-9 MPH IN THE MORNING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ERRATIC AND GUSTY THROUGH MID AND LATE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH POSSIBLE. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASINGLY ERRATIC AND GUSTY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1500...THEN 4. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4700-5700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8800-9800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-44. MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WINDS ERRATIC AND GUSTY...DOMINATED THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THROUGH SUNSET...THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY OR NORTHEAST 4-7 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....ERRATIC AND GUSTY EARLY EVENING...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5600-6600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1400-1900 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD DECREASING TO POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-68. MIN HUMIDITY........27-30 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY OR SOUTH 5-9 MPH IN THE MORNING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ERRATIC AND GUSTY THROUGH MID AND LATE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7900-8900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (44100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (94800 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...MEUNIER REQUESTED BY...DIANE RAU REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130807.PACKE.01/RIW