FNUS75 KPIH 081050
FWSPIH

SPOT FORECAST FOR PAPOOSE...CIIFC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
450 AM MDT THU AUG 8 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0229 MDT ON AUGUST 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
MDT THIS EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD
THE FIRE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE LOW OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON HELPING
TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER AND SOUTH OF
THE FIRE COMPLEX. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY. BY FRIDAY...A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
WORK NORTH TOWARD THE FIRE COMPLEX DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS DRY SLOT EXTENDING
THROUGH THE STANLEY BASIN FALLING SHORT OF THE FIRE AREA. IF THE
DRY SLOT EXTENDS FARTHER NORTH AND THE MODELS INDICATE...GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY SURFACE OVER THE FIRE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
                    MPH POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....90-93 AT 3500 MSL...80-83 AT 7500 MSL.
MIN HUMIDITY........7 TO 10 PERCENT AT 3500 MSL...14 TO 19
                    PERCENT AT 7500 MSL.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNCANYON UP TO 15 MPH IN THE LOWER REACHES
                    OF THE MIDDLE FORK UNTIL 0900 MDT THEN
                    BECOMING 5 TO 10 MPH. UPSLOPE WINDS 5 TO 10
                    MPH DEVELOPING AT MID-SLOPE AS EARLY AS 1000
                    MDT ON EAST FACING CANYONS/SLOPES. EAST WINDS
                    5 TO 15 MPH AT RIDGE TOPS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5.
LAL.................1...THEN 4 IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND GUSTS
                    UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-59.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........TYPICALLY STRONG DOWNCANYON FLOW SHOULD BE
                    WEAKER DUE TO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
                    6 TO 12 MPH. EAST WINDS AT RIDGE TOP BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT 8 TO 18 MPH.
CWR.................12 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4.
LAL.................4...THEN 2 AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....89-94 AT 3500 MSL...81-84 AT 7500 MSL.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH DEVELOPING BY
                    MID-MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 18 MPH
                    AT RIDGE TOP. GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT
                    MID AND UPPER SLOPES IF DRIER CONDITIONS
                    WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4.
LAL.................2.

$$
FORECASTER...HUSTON
REQUESTED BY...KENDRA
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130808.PAPOO.01/PIH