FNUS75 KRIW 091054 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDLUCK...USFS SHF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 454 AM MDT FRI AUG 9 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1953 MDT ON AUGUST 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FILL IN THIS CLEAR SLOT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY HIGHER TODAY. THE WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN LIGHT...INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...MEUNIER .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 1000. PARTIAL CLEARING AROUND MIDDAY WILL BE FILLED IN BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-70 AT 8500 FEET...57-60 AT 10000 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........31-34 PERCENT AT ALL LEVELS. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 4-8 MPH...GUSTS TO 15 MPH LATE MORNING. BECOMING SOUTHWEST EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMING INCREASINGLY ERRATIC AND GUSTY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING WEST LATE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1000...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.40 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7200-8200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...BECOMING VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-47. MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......PRIMARILY NORTH NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY OR SOUTH 4-8 MPH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY EVENING. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900-1900 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL SUNSET...THEN BECOMING POOR. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-74 AT 8500 FEET...61-64 AT 10000 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY OR SOUTH 5-9 MPH IN THE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500-9500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS 74-77. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...MEUNIER REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130808.HARDL.01/RIW