FNUS74 KMAF 110515
FWSMAF

SPOT FORECAST FOR ERNEST FIRE...BIG BEND NATIONAL PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1215 AM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2217 MDT ON AUGUST 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING DANGER.

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AT 10 TO
15 MPH DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME GUSTY
AND ERRATIC IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. POOR VENTILATION DURING THE
MORNING WILL BECOME EXCELLENT BY AFTERNOON.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PCT.
WIND (20 FT)........TERRAIN DOMINATED UNDER 5 MPH BECOMING EAST 11
                    TO 16 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........2 (VERY LOW).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (20300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (140900 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....20 PERCENT.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE         NONE         NONE
CHC PCPN (%)....10           10           20
TEMP............74           84           94
RH..............67           45           32
20 FT WIND DIR..SE           E            E
20 FT WIND SPD..2            9            13
20 FT WIND GUST.5            10           15
MIX HGT (FT)....500          4500         9000
TRANS WIND DIR..S            NE           E
TRANS WIND SPD..1            5            14
VENT CAT........FAIR         FAIR         VYGOOD
LAL.............1            1            1
HAINES INDEX....2            2            2

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........63 PCT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING
                    BECOMING TERRAIN DOMINATED UNDER 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 (VERY LOW).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (133000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (1200 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....20 PERCENT.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
SKY (%).........PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE         NONE         NONE
CHC PCPN (%)....20           10           10
TEMP............93           82           78
RH..............33           48           56
20 FT WIND DIR..E            E            SE
20 FT WIND SPD..16           11           8
20 FT WIND GUST.
MIX HGT (FT)....9500         500          500
TRANS WIND DIR..E            E            SE
TRANS WIND SPD..14           6            4
VENT CAT........VYGOOD       FAIR         FAIR
LAL.............1            1            1
HAINES INDEX....2            2            2

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 97.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PCT.
WIND (20 FT)........TERRAIN DOMINATED UNDER 5 MPH BECOMING EAST 7
                    TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 (VERY LOW).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (26400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (140000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....10 PERCENT.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE         NONE         NONE
CHC PCPN (%)....10           10           10
TEMP............74           85           96
RH..............63           44           30
20 FT WIND DIR..SE           E            E
20 FT WIND SPD..2            8            11
20 FT WIND GUST.5
MIX HGT (FT)....500          5000         8500
TRANS WIND DIR..S            NE           E
TRANS WIND SPD..1            6            14
VENT CAT........FAIR         GOOD         VYGOOD
LAL.............1            1            1
HAINES INDEX....2            2            2

$$

FORECASTER...HLUCHAN
REQUESTED BY...ED WALDRON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130810.ERNES.01/MAF