FNUS75 KRIW 111102
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDLUCK...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
502 AM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2023 MDT ON AUGUST 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS DENOTED BY THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR LOGAN UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE DIVIDE AND THE FIRE AREA
AROUND MIDDAY. THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY MAY WANE THROUGH THE
MORNING...IT SHOULD BLOSSOM ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. THIS SHOULD BE THE BRUNT OF ACTIVITY TODAY AS AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL PULL UP A DRIER AND WARMER
AIRMASS INTO WESTERN WYOMING THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED. A LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL WITH SURFACE WINDS MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT) THROUGH 1100...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
                    BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 75 AT 8500 FEET...NEAR 65 AT 10000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-19 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY OR SOUTH 5-9 MPH IN THE MORNING.
                    BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.  GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...
                    ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3 UNTIL 1600...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE
                    GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...INCREASING TO 12500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...BECOMING GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...
                    THEN CLEARING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-49.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTH NORTHEAST 5-9 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    4-7 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EARLY EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......6100-7100 FT AGL DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL SUNSET...THEN POOR.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING (10-20 PERCENT).
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) IN THE AFTERNOON
                    WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77 AT 8500 FEET.  64-67 AT 10000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-17 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...INCREASING TO 13000-13800 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130810.HARDL.01/RIW