FNUS75 KGJT 130507
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR RED CANYON FIRE...GJC DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1107 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2240 MDT ON AUGUST 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH CONVECTION STARTING AROUND NOON. BY 3PM...STORMS WILL
BE VISIBLE FROM THE BURN SITE OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...SOME STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY
OVER THE BURN SITE. SOME BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY AND VARIABLE OUTFLOW WINDS OF 35
MPH OR SO. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER BY 9PM LEADING TO
CLEARING CONDITIONS. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS WITH STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE BURN SITE.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 11PM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-32%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 5 TO
                    8 MPH AFTER 11AM...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AFTER 2PM AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH
                    POSSIBLE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD AFTER 2PM.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 13 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AFTER 8PM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD DECREASING TO POOR AFTER 10PM.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-500 FT AGL AFTER
                    10PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-21%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AFTER 11AM...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AT 10
                    TO 12 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS
                    AFTER 2PM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 13 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...DON SCRONEK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130812.REDCA.03/GJT