FNUS75 KRIW 131023
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDLUCK...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
423 AM MDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1929 MDT ON AUGUST 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUILD AGAIN ACROSS THE FIRE AREA WITH AN ISOLATED
STORM POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALREADY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL THE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS AROUND THE AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOMING
SCATTERED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-71 AT 8K FEET AND 57-60 AT 10,400 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-29 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 0900...THEN 3 UNTIL 1300 THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.50 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700-5700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (19600-57300 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40 VALLEY FLOOR AND 43-47 MID AND UPPER ELEVATIONS.
MAX HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700-5700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (2200-40200 KNOT-FT).

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-71 AT 8K FEET AND 57-60 AT 10,400 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-31 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 11 TO 12
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO 17 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900-6900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000-9000 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (65000-90000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130812.HARDL.01/RIW