FNUS75 KRIW 121846
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HAYSTACK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1246 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1228 MDT ON AUGUST 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY
AND WILL AGAIN TOMORROW...LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING.
MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE TERRAIN TIED WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CORE NOT MOVING FAR FROM WHERE IT STARTS. ALSO...THE THREAT OF
GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL PERSIST WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE BUILD...DIE...THEN REBUILD. IF ANYTHING...
A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRAUN

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (15-25 PERCENT). ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-18 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 510 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.4 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600-7600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 14000 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (23700-40700 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 9 PM.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-48.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-68 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING
                    TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................2 EARLY BECOMING 1 AFTER 8 PM.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900-7900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-700 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5
                    MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST AROUND 13 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING TO
                    THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1400-18800 KNOT-FT).

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-23 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.4 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400-6400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9700-10700 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 12 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING
                    WEST 7 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (28800-48100 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRAUN
REQUESTED BY...FILARDO
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130812.HAYST.01/RIW