FNUS73 KAPX 131242 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR LEINSTER RED PINE...DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 842 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON AUGUST 13. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...ANOTHER VERY COOL DAY ON TAP FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. VERY COOL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WARM GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO OVERALL CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY EVEN SEE SOME HYBRID LAKE/LAND HEATING INDUCED SHOWERS DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE ON THE LOWER END. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT A GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ANTICIPATED. GUSTINESS SUBSIDES THIS EVENING BUT WE WILL STILL MAINTAIN A BIT OF A NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED WIND UNDER 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT TO VARYING DEGREES TONIGHT...WITH COOL WEATHER CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SOLID N/NW WIND THROUGH THE DAY AND SOME MORE GUSTINESS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........58 AT IGNITION...MAX 64. RH..................67 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1600-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200-6600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1000) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1400). TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........86 85 83 82 79 73 71 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............58 60 62 63 64 64 63 RH..............67 60 56 52 50 50 52 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......1000110011001300130013001400 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 44. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 23 MPH DECREASING TO 8 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........63 49 42 41 39 39 39 39 39 40 42 43 WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE....RW RW TEMP............62 60 58 55 53 51 49 49 48 46 45 44 RH..............54 58 62 69 77 83 89 86 89 96 96 100 20 FT WIND DIR..N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 15 15 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......12001100800 500 200 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 70. RH..................MIN 39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 17 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1300). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........41 34 36 37 39 35 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............45 53 59 63 67 69 RH..............96 74 64 54 43 39 20 FT WIND......NW 3 NW 4 NW 5 NW 6 W 6 W 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 15 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 100 400 600 1000 1200 $$ FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130813.LEINS.01/APX