FNAK79 PAFG 150257
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIRCH CREEK...AFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
657 PM AKDT WED AUG 14 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1807 AKDT ON AUGUST 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER THE YUKON FLATS
AND EXTENDS EAST INTO THE YUKON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN POSITIONED OVER THE YUKON CONTINUES TO RECEDE INTO THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETREATS INTO CANADA A MORE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NUDGE DAY TIME MINIMUM RH VALUES TO AROUND
40 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AND NEAR 45 PERCENT FRIDAY. RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO AROUND 85  TO 90 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THE THERMAL TROUGH NORTH AND EAST OF THE FIRE WILL CAUSE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF
                    SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO 15 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
                    THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
.SUNDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...COX
REQUESTED BY...GLEN LEWIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130814.BIRCH.01/AFG