FNUS74 KEPZ 141758
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR LITTLE RX...LNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1158 AM MDT WED AUG 14 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1155 MDT ON AUGUST 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOON RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
ALLOWING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SET UP. TYPICALLY THIS PATTERN
RESULTS IN WEAK IMPULSES DROPPING INTO THE AREA WHICH HELPS INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE CASE TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROMOTE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL...
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.

DESPITE DEEP MIXING...TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE WEAK BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO GET VENTILATION
RATES INTO THE FAIR CATEGORY.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 6500 FT AGL MIDDAY...DECREASING TO
                    5500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 4 KNOTS.
VENT RATE...........26,000 KNOT-FEET (POOR)

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 KNOTS.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 3 TO 5 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING
                    SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. ERRATIC AND
                    GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1900 FT AGL IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
                    AROUND 9,000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.
VENT RATE...........MAX 45,000 FEET (FAIR)

$$
FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...NM-ADC
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130814.LITTL.01/EPZ