FNUS72 KMFL 141227 FWSMFL SPOT FORECAST FOR LOXBURN15...U.S. FISH & WILDLIFE SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 827 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON AUGUST 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING TODAY, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAPPEN WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE BURN AREA. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OUR GENERAL FORECAST. MAYBE UP TOWARDS 35 PERCENT. THIS WILL BE AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES ACROSS THE BURN AREA. EXPECTED TIME OF THE SEA BREEZE TODAY IS AROUND 3 PM, GIVEN OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO. THERE MAY BE A SW 20 FT WIND OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 1 AND 3 THIS AFTERNOON, ACCORDING TO CURRENT MODELS. HOWEVER, STILL EXPECTING TO OVER ALL TRANSPORT WINDS TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTH EAST DURING THIS TIME. ONCE THE SE BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH, CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED AND GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF THE BURN AREA. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE THE THREAT OF OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THESE STORMS, ALBEIT A SMALL THREAT AS THEY WILL BE WORKING AGAIN THE SEA BREEZE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 93. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 51 PERCENT. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 2 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....11 INCREASING TO 50. LVORI...............2. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM SKY (%).........19 44 50 50 50 46 WEATHER COV..... ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE TSTM COV........ ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD TEMP............90 93 92 91 87 83 RH..............58 51 52 53 59 70 20 FT WIND......SE 4 SE 4 SE 5 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....5000 5000 5000 4500 4500 700 MIXNG WIND......SE 7 SE 7 SE 8 SE 12 SE 12 SE 9 DISPERSION IDX..34 34 52 47 47 12 LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 25 35 25 10 LAL.............1 1 2 2 2 1 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 75. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT. LAL.................1. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 1 TO 9 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....8 DECREASING TO 2 EARLY IN THE MORNING. LVORI...............5. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 91. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 56 PERCENT. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-4700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....10 INCREASING TO 28 IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LVORI...............3. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...IPPOLITI REQUESTED BY...JON WALLACE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130814.LOXBU.01/MFL