FNUS73 KAPX 151255
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR LEINSTER RED PINE UNIT 1...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
855 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON AUGUST 15. IF
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NOT ONLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WELL.
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 35 PERCENT...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 70 TO 75.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (15-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........71 AT IGNITION...MAX 75.
RH..................46 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    WINDS WEST 5 TO 7 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST DURING THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (900) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (900).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........26  31  33  32  30  29
WEATHER COV.....NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
WEATHER TYPE....NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
TEMP............71  73  74  74  75  75
RH..............46  40  37  34  33  33
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10  15  15  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......900 800 700 700 700 600

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 42.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........26  19  15  14  12  10  9   7   6   7   7   8
WEATHER COV.....NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
WEATHER TYPE....NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
TEMP............74  71  68  63  58  53  50  48  46  44  42  42
RH..............37  44  52  65  77  93  100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  N   NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5   4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...BRUCE SMITH
REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130815.LEINS.01/APX