FNUS75 KPUB 152324
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR WALDO...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
524 PM MDT THU AUG 15 2013

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA AT
THE PRESENT TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH FRIDAY.  IN
GENERAL...THIS RIDGE IS SPREADING A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE WALDO BURN SITE.  THE SURFACE AIRMASS IS DRYING OUT AS
WELL AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.  HOWEVER...COMPUTER MODELS STILL
INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE PIKES PEAK AREA MOUNTAINS...DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAN AN ISOLATED POCKET
OF HEAVY RAIN COULD DEVELOP.  IT THAT HAPPENS TO OCCUR OVER THE
WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR AREA...THEN...OF COURSE...THERE WOULD BE
PROBLEMS.  BUT...THE ODDS OF THIS ON FRIDAY...WILL BE MUCH...MUCH
LOWER THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS THIS WEEK.  METEOROLOGICALLY...IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE VERY TOUGH TO GET FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR AREA ON FRIDAY.  BUT...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
                    WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.  PRIMARY
                    STORM CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
                    WINDS...BUT...ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...THERE COULD
                    ALSO BE AN ISOLATED POCKET OF HEAVY RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    5-10 MPH 1000-1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 6000 FT AGL UNTIL
                    1100...THEN 12000 FT AGL UNTIL 1600...THEN 6000
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130815.WALDO.01/PUB