FNUS75 KRIW 161021 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDLUCK...USFS SHF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 421 AM MDT FRI AUG 16 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1933 MDT ON AUGUST 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ANOTHER VERY DRY DAY TODAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LIKING BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE AREA. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LESS TODAY BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY'S LEVEL. ALSO...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WESTERN WYOMING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE ISOLATED GUSTY LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FIRE AREA ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE... IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE DRY AND BREEZY AT TIMES OVER EXPOSED AREAS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...SKRBAC .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-80 AT 8K AND 66-69 AT 10,400 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........8-12 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4700-5700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11100-12100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 15-18 MPH OUT OF THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (58900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (170000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-40 VALLEY FLOOR AND 43-47 MID AND UPPER ELEVATIONS. MAX HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-85 PERCENT IN VALLEY AREAS. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9500-10500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3100-4100 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (128900 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (33900 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-79 AT 8K AND 65-68 AT 10,400 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........10-14 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9700-10700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 17 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (60500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (152000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...SKRBAC REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130815.HARDL.01/RIW