FNUS75 KRIW 170911
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDLUCK...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
311 AM MDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2121 MDT ON AUGUST 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND SOME
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY AND THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY STORMS IN THE AREA WILL BE VERY GUSTY...ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THE STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED BUT ANY
NEARBY STORMS CAN PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MANY MILES FROM THE PARENT
STORM. OTHERWISE...IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH LOW
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SIMILAR OR ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FRIDAY.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR ANY STORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-81 AT 8K AND 67-70 AT 10,400 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-13 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300-5300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10500-11500 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (63100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (155000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. GUST AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45 VALLEY FLOOR AND 46-51 MID AND UPPER
                    ELEVATIONS.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-70 PERCENT VALLEY FLOOR AND 40-50 PERCENT MID
                    AND UPPER ELEVATIONS.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.NEAR ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8800-9800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 4200-5200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (94700 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (37200
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77 AT 8K AND 61-65 AT 10,400 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-21 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100-6100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9300-10300 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 17
                    TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (80200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (149000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130816.HARDL.01/RIW