FNUS75 KRIW 170944
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOST LAKE...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
344 AM MDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2145 MDT ON AUGUST 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND SOME
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY AND THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY STORMS IN THE AREA WILL BE VERY GUSTY...ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THE STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED BUT ANY
NEARBY STORMS CAN PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MANY MILES FROM THE PARENT
STORM. OTHERWISE...IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH LOW
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SIMILAR OR ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FRIDAY.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

*PLEASE TAKE SOME ON SITE OBS AS THE CRANDALL RAWS IS TOO FAR AWAY AND
TOO DIFFERENT AN AREA TO HELP MUCH WITH THIS FIRE. THANKS!


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500L.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-76.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1...UNTIL 1500L THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11000-12000 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 20 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (63900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (210000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........62-65 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8400-9400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3800-4800 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (130900 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR
                    (44500 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-73.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700-5700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000-10000 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (68700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (134200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...TIM HAAS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130816.LOSTL.01/RIW