FNUS75 KRIW 170928
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PACIFIC CREEK...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
328 AM MDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2221 MDT ON AUGUST 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND SOME
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY AND THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY STORMS IN THE AREA WILL BE VERY GUSTY...ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THE STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED BUT ANY
NEARBY STORMS CAN PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MANY MILES FROM THE PARENT
STORM. OTHERWISE...IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH LOW
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SIMILAR OR ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FRIDAY.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-85.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-11 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST 12 TO 15 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000-11000 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH
                    AFTER 1100L.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (41400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (120400 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........59-62 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9100-10100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3800-4800 FT
                    AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (99300 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (25400
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-16 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    MORNING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9300-10300 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 15 TO 18
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (40700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (114100 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 80.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 80. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...JON WHITE
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130816.PACIF.01/RIW