FNUS75 KGJT 171620
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR FRANKS BENCH...GJC DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1020 AM MDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0939 MDT ON AUGUST 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS THIS MORNING AND
WILL SPREADING TOWARD THE FIRE SITE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE...WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS A STRONG POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. A BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
OF WETTING RAINS AS WELL. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BE HIGHER ON
SUNDAY WITH BETTER RECOVERY EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
WEST WITH TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS DOMINATING AFTER SUNSET.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH 1200 THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%) WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-86 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    TO WEST 7 TO 12 MPH AFTER 1200. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO GOOD AFTER 1300.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1 THROUGH 1200...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO NEAR 12000 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2200 THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 59 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........49-54%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO DOWNSLOPE
                    3 TO 7 MPH AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD THROUGH 2000 THEN DECREASING TO POOR
                    AFTER SUNSET.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2 THROUGH 2200...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL THROUGH SUNSET THEN DECREASING
                    TO LESS THAN 1500 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 5 MPH AFTER
                    SUNSET.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%) THROUGH 1700 THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY  CLOUDY (60-70%) WITH
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 4 TO 7 MPH BECOMING WEST
                    6 TO 11 MPH BY 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 0900 THEN INCREASING TO VERY
                    GOOD BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1 THROUGH 1700 THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL THROUGH 0900 THEN INCREASING TO
                    11700 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 11 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...DON SCRONEK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130817.FRANK.01/GJT