FNUS75 KGJT 190022
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR USAPCC STAGE 1...CSP IMT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
622 PM MDT SUN AUG 18 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1721 MDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD MODEL FOR WHAT WILL HAPPEN
ON MONDAY. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES AT START
TIME WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 80F UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS AT START
TIME WILL BE UPVALLEY/FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5-8 MPH. BUT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN
STARTING MID-MORNING WITH LIGHTNING AND RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COURSE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS...LIKE THE 35MPH WIND GUST THAT OCCURRED AT
THE ASPEN AIRPORT MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM
EFFECTS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BE VERY
SLOW TO THE WEST. MOST STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET AND WINDS WILL
TURN TO DOWNVALLEY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. AT 10AM EXPECT A TEMPERATURE IN ASPEN OF
64-68F WITH WINDS STILL DOWNVALLEY 2-6MPH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ON TUESDAY...COMPARED TO MONDAY...SO CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALSO INCREASE. CLOUDS WILL BUILD EARLIER SO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OVER INDEPENDENCE PASS. FROM THEN ON
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THREATEN THE RACE ESPECIALLY OF
HOOSIER PASS. LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS,
AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON STORMS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 2-7 MPH BECOMING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    AFTER 1400. OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ARE
                    POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77 F VALLEYS...58-63 F PASSES.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35% VALLEYS...45-50% PASSES.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY WINDS UNTIL 1100 THEN UPVALLEY 2-6
                    MPH. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...ALEX BURCHETTA
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20130818.USAPC.01/GJT