FNUS75 KRIW 200938 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDLUCK...USFS SHF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 338 AM MDT TUE AUG 20 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2127 MDT ON AUGUST 19. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE INITIAL SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE VERY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 45 MPH. THIS CAN OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM. A MUCH BETTER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. THE MINIMUM RH COULD EASILY OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RISING RH IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY...AS A STORM SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/EXTREME NORTHERN ROCKIES...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE WILDFIRE AREA THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED YESTERDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...MURRELL .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-79 AT 8 KFT. 60-64 AT 11 KFT. MIN HUMIDITY........13-17 PERCENT AT 8 KFT. 19-23 PERCENT AT 11 KFT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH BY 9 AM...BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH BY NOON. THERE IS A CHANCE WINDS COULD BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AFTER 3 PM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 45 MPH NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE 15-20 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH...BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH AROUND 2 PM. GUSTS TO 25 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH...BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST 15-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-60 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50. MAX HUMIDITY........50-60 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BY 9 PM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH...BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................2 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN 1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 2100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH...BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75+ PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE MORNING THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74 AT 8 KFT. 54-58 AT 11 KFT. MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT AT 8 KFT. 35 PERCENT AT 11 KFT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE 3-7 MPH...BECOMING VERY GUSTY AND ERRATIC BY AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE AND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LAL.................1 UNTIL 10 AM...THEN 2 UNTIL 1 PM...THEN 4. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.25 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE BY AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH...EXCEPT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...MURRELL REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130819.HARDL.02/RIW